AFCON 2027 favourites: who the draw helped
Morocco arrive as reigning champions and the highest-ranked side in Africa. But qualifying is where several contenders will actually be tested, and the draw did not treat them equally.
The six contenders and what stands in the way
The striking thing about this draw is how completely the leading sides avoided each other. Five of the six highest-ranked entrants landed in groups where nobody else is inside the world top 70. Only one pair was drawn together, and they meet on the opening matchday.
Morocco
2 titles, the last in 2025. A clear run. In Group A the nearest side, Gabon, sits 78 places lower.
Senegal
1 title, the last in 2021. Group J offers little resistance. The closest side, Mozambique, is 85 places behind.
Egypt
7 titles, the last in 2010. A clear run. In Group B the nearest side, Angola, sits 63 places lower.
Nigeria
3 titles, the last in 2013. Group L offers little resistance. The closest side, Madagascar, is 78 places behind.
Algeria
2 titles, the last in 2019. A clear run. In Group I the nearest side, Zambia, sits 61 places lower.
Ivory Coast
3 titles, the last in 2023. The exception. Group C is the only one holding two sides inside the top 70, so one of these two is going to fall short.
The three who are already through
Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania qualify automatically as hosts: Uganda (#89), Kenya (#109), Tanzania (#112). None has ever reached a semi-final, and none will play a competitive match that matters before the finals begin. Whether that helps or hurts them is the most interesting open question of this cycle.
How we work this out
The ordering comes from the FIFA ranking released on July 20, 2026. Everything said about a team's path comes from the draw: who is in their group, how many former champions are there, and how far back the nearest challenger sits. We do not model form or injuries, and we say so rather than dressing a ranking up as analysis.
No betting odds appear on this page because no market has opened for the 2027 tournament.